Former President Serzh Sargsyan discussed the main causes of the 2020 war during an interview on the “Imnemnimi” podcast, asserting that the conflict could have been avoided.
He identified three primary reasons.
The first cause, according to Sargsyan, was the complete abandonment of the negotiation process. He claimed that the Armenian negotiating side had proposed an unclear version, resulting in talks being suspended.
Sargsyan noted that, in his view, the current leader initially failed to fully grasp the negotiation dynamics, as understanding the trajectory of those talks required more than simply reading documents.
The second cause, Sargsyan said, was that certain actions enabled Azerbaijan to justify launching a military offensive and starting the war.
“The third reason was that Azerbaijani and Turkish intelligence had a clear picture of the state of our army and saw that its combat readiness had significantly declined,” said Sargsyan.
As for the war's painful outcome, Sargsyan stated that until 2018, such a result was not inevitable. He began noticing issues within the Armenian Armed Forces in the second half of 2018 and throughout 2019, with his concerns confirmed by 2020.
He recalled warning in an August 2020 press conference that military action was drawing near.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan responded to Sargsyan’s comments through several social media posts, including on the negotiation process, promising to publish the documents by year-end.
“Don’t worry. I’ve organized the key documents of the negotiation history (including from 2019). We’re scanning them and will publish by year-end. I’ll also include a few public documents, plus one letter from you, so you don’t think I’m withholding anything. When you wake up, inform LTP and RK too,” he wrote.
Pashinyan also dismissed Sargsyan’s claim that the current government undermined the army, citing Sargsyan’s own past statements.
“S.S. tried to create the impression that between 2018–2020, we dismantled the army. Here’s a quote from S.S. on April 17, 2018, in Parliament as a prime ministerial nominee, speaking about Azerbaijan likely trying to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue by war:
‘The next lesson is that for a long time, we must prioritize reforming our armed forces, acquiring new weaponry, producing our own arms, and, most importantly, keeping the spirit of the Armenian soldier and officer high, addressing their daily issues, and strengthening their confidence in the future under any circumstances.’
If even a fraction of what you now say about the army post-2020 were true, then you should’ve said something else in 2018. You should have said, ‘we have long focused on reforming our armed forces, acquiring new weaponry, producing arms locally, and, most importantly, uplifting the morale of the Armenian soldier and officer…’
So why didn’t you say that? Because you knew that by 2018, your system had more fuel siphoning through hoses from tanks than actual army reform.
P.S. Don’t wake up, let him sleep peacefully,” Pashinyan concluded.
