David Ananyan, former head of Armenia’s State Revenue Committee and a member of the Wings of Unity political movement, posted his analysis of the Vagharshapat local elections on Facebook, pointing to what he called “deep structural contradictions in the local governance system.”
He argued that the ruling Civil Contract party was declared the winner not because it secured majority support, but due to electoral math.
“The Civil Contract party received just 21.8% of the total registered vote (15,298 out of 69,866 voters). Yet, after eliminating votes for parties that didn’t pass the threshold, it gained a 59.3% majority in the council, i.e.,16 out of 27 seats,” he wrote.
Ananyan said this outcome stems from the current electoral formula (proportional system + D’Hondt method + high thresholds), which replaces real representation with artificial majorities. As a result, opposition forces that collectively received more votes end up with fewer seats.
“This is not a precedent. It’s a warning,” he stated.
He cautioned that the Vagharshapat model could be replicated in the 2026 national elections. If the opposition remains fragmented, self-contained, and uncoordinated, the system will once again reproduce the ruling force, even without majority public support.
“There’s a dual risk. Thousands of votes for smaller parties may be ‘burned’ for failing to pass the threshold. The electoral resource will be wasted, and the ruling party will retain power through the fragmentation of its opponents.”
Politically, he argued, this means that when opposition participation is symbolic and strategy-free, the system shifts from pluralism to institutionalizing one-party dominance.
“This is where the most dangerous consequence emerges: the separation of legality from legitimacy. The law functions, but no longer reflects the full public will.”
Ananyan concluded that the Vagharshapat election should serve as a signal.
“If broad alliances, real political coalitions, and a unified strategy are not formed by 2026, even a majority of votes may translate into minority representation, and public expectations may again hit a dead end.”
According to preliminary results, Civil Contract received the most votes in Vagharshapat. The party list was led by Argishti Mekhakyan.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Facebook that the election results provide “important momentum to liberate the Mother See” and that “the people will win the 2026 parliamentary elections.”
