The World Bank forecasts Armenia’s GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, according to its latest Country Economic Update report.
These projections do not reflect developments following the August 8 Armenia–U.S.–Azerbaijan agreements, such as the new grain transit route through Azerbaijan to Armenia, Sputnik Armenia notes.
The World Bank’s outlook closely aligns with the Armenian government’s forecast of an average 5.3% growth for 2026–2028.
According to the report, Armenia’s main growth drivers remain the IT sector (25.6%) and construction (18.5%). Trade and services (excluding IT) grew by 4.4%, though the pace has slowed compared to 2022–2023, while the industrial sector contracted by 12.1%. These findings are based on mid-year 2025 data, and trends have largely continued in the months since.
Unemployment dropped slightly to 13.1% in Q1 2025, compared to 13.9% at the end of 2024. The decline may partly stem from formalization efforts linked to government inspections that reduced shadow employment.
In 2024, Russia’s removal of gold export duties, previously avoided by re-exporting through Armenia, reduced Armenia’s incentives for this trade route.
Tourism fell early in 2025 but rebounded between May and August, bringing the number of foreign tourists to around 1.5 million, just above the 1.48 million figure for the same months in 2024. Russian nationals continue to make up 41% of all visitors.
Remittances totaled about $588 million in the first half of 2025, similar to the $595 million recorded during the same period in 2024. The peak was in 2022, reaching $2.584 billion, largely due to the influx of Russian migrants.
As of the end of August, Armenia’s public debt stood at 47.7% of 2024 GDP, staying below the 50% threshold.
The World Bank expects investment to play a growing role in 2026–2027, supported by infrastructure development and private-sector tech modernization.
