The world economy has not reacted to the financial crisis properly yet, said Tigran Jrbashyan, Director of Development Department of Ameriabank.
“Yesterday’s fall of oil price and U.S. stock market slump alludes to the fact,” he said, adding that there are possible scenarios for the development of world economy, apart from the two ones existing already: L-shaped development and W-shaped development, the latter being more realistic.
In that connection, our interlocutor added that recent official data published by US recorded 9.7% unemployment. As reported by President Obama’s Press Secretary, that rate may increase up to 10%. “That means there are still difficulties to be overcome,” Jrbasyan noted.
According to him, situation in Armenia is not consoling either. GDP in January was -15.7% which is conditioned by decline in construction sphere (56.1%). Decline in industrial production sphere made up 10.5%, while good circulation decreased by 33.7%. “Macroeconomic situation in Armenia testifies to the fact that we are experiencing the first stage of world crisis,” Jrbashyan said. Delays in implementation of certain programs reduce tax revenues and investment volumes, he finds. “The anti-crisis programs elaborated by RA government are, in my view, properly planned. The whole problem consists in transforming the decision in the private sector,” Jrbashyan explained, adding that it would have fundamental importance for Armenia in terms of helping overcome the crisis impact.
As noted by Ameriabank’s Development Department Director, economic entities are currently facing a problem of reducing production volumes and consumer demand. And that leads to the situation we are facing now. When investment activeness weakens, the state has to attract additional financial means. And that’s what it is actually doing, Jrbashyan added. The whole problem consists in speeding up implementation of the decisions made. “During crisis when situation constantly changes it is very important to have rapid reaction mechanism,” Jrbashyan said.
