Though the official Baku presents the concession of the U.S. Congress as a victory of the Azerbaijani diplomacy, the foreign ministry of the country has serious doubts that the American legislators will agree to prolong the action of the document providing the President with a right of a veto on section 907. “We do not know, if we’ll succeed once more,” Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmud Mamed-Kuliyev said recently. At the same time he confirmed that the foreign ministry of Azerbaijan “does its best to achieve the total lift of the section 907”. On the session of the Azerbaijani-American intergovernmental commission held on September 30 a special attention was paid to this issue. The representatives of the US administration, naturally, have not guaranteed that the sanctions would be lifted. However, they promised to use their influence on the congress to convince the legislators to prolong the term of the moratorium for another year.
There are no doubts that the officials representing the U.S. administration in the intergovernmental commission will keep their word and continue to protect the interests of Azerbaijan. But do they have enough mechanisms for a successful lobbying? It is known that after the elections in the House of Representatives held in October, the number of congressmen cooperating with the Armenian organizations have increased. If on the day when the resolution concerning the section 907 was being voted, the “Armenian group”of Congress was counting 117 members, now it has 125 members. The total number of the congressmen supported by the Armenian Assembly and the Armenian National Committee is about 140. This is enough not to allow the prolongation of the document. The co-chairmen of the “Armenian group” are very determined. Besides, the NKR foreign ministry has provided them with documents proving the ties of Azerbaijan with international terrorism.
During her recent visit to Washington, the Foreign Minister of Nagorno Karabakh Republic Naira Melkumyan delivered to the co-chairmen of the “Armenian group” a package of documents which would be useful during the discussion of the issue on lifting the section 907. Even if as a result the administration succeeds to prolong the term of the veto on sanctions, there are no doubts that this time the authority of the President will be much more restricted. During the discussion in the House of Representatives of the draft law on foreign assignations for 2002 many congressmen have voiced their concern with the fact that some points of the document were not formulated precisely. “We are concerned with the vagueness of the authority with which the congress has provided the president, and we assure that we will study again this issue in December 2002,” Congressman Nita Loway said a year ago. The main condition for lifting of the 907 section was the removal of the blockade of Armenia and Nagorno Karabkh by Azerbaijan. This condition will again be raised during the upcoming hearings of the draft law on foreign assignments, Co-chairman of the Armenian group Frank Pallone says. There are other factors able to influence the moods of the congressmen.
According to Pallone, discussing the prolongation of the moratorium on sanctions, it will hardly be possible to avoid the subject most vulnerable for Azerbaijan. “The radical Islamic forces continue to use Azerbaijan as a main base for implementing their terrorist operations. This should be taken into account while deciding the issue of the fate of the section 907,” the co-chairman of the Armenian group says. Really, during the last year many proofs of the ties of Azerbaijan with international terrorist have been reveled. The extremist organizations having their branches in Baku, present a direct threat to the United States. Among them such well-known groups as “Hizbut-Tahrir”, the soldiers of which were preparing the terrorist act against the American Embassy of Baku, the “Jeyshullah” included by the U.S. Department of State in the list of the 39 most dangerous extremist groups of the world, the “Islamic Jihad” merged with the “Al Qaida”.
It is supposed that the legislators will be surprised to know that the branches of the organizations forbidden all over the world, such as the “Benevolence International Foundation” and the “Global Relief Foundation”, operate legally in Baku up to now. In short, there are enough grounds to think that during the discussion of the issue about the fate of the section 907the congressmen lobbying the interests of Azerbaijan will have serious problems.
