The legislators sanctioned the access of the American troops on the territory of the South-Eastern province of Khakyari for starting a land operation against Iraq. However, the expectations of Turks from the participation in the anti-Iraqi coalition may not be justified. Ankara has not received real guaranties of being provided with the promised ”bribe” worth $6 bln from Washington.
Turkish oppositionists that have come out against the involvement of the country in the war are sure that Turkey will once more loose, as it happened after the operation ”Storm in the Desert”. Then Ankara received from the Americans only an insignificant part of the expected recompense. The new pro-American government headed by Receb Erdoghan, has no arguments to calm the worried inhabitants. The question is that Americans are paying for the military support not with real but with hypothetic money. The promised billions of dollars are not envisaged in the state budget of 2003 and it is difficult to say where the administration is going to find them. ”The package of the aid to Turkey is not being discussed at present,” the Secretary of State Collin Powell said recently in the House of Representatives answering the question of a congressman about the mechanisms of encouragement of Ankara for the support to the military operation against Iraq.
Meanwhile, the Turks were promised that the aid worth $6 bln would be provided immediately after the approval by the Mejlis of the decision to support the Americans in the opening of the Northern front. The second front is opened, but there is no money. This fact, naturally, made the number of the participants of the anti-war manifestations taking place these days in Ankara and Istanbul increase. People are led not only by pacifist principles but also by the concern that Turkey will once again appear in a stupid situation. Its involvement in the war has already played a negative role for the reputation of Turkey in the Islamic world. In the Arabian countries they have started to break the glasses of the cars with Turkish number plates. The choice of Ankara will be reflected on the perspective of its membership in the European Union. France and Germany once again saw that a country which has no moral principles and, if paid, is ready to fight against everybody, has nothing to do in the European family. The Turkish economy will also suffer seriously from the war. During the coming resort season the Turkish coasts of the Mediterranean Sea will be empty. The state budget will have a loss of incomes equal to billions of dollars. It is rather doubtful, if the promised financial aid of Washington covers the big losses.
But there is something much more serious than the economic crisis. The upcoming Turkish intervention in Iraq and, as a consequence, the confrontation of the Turkish troops with Kurds will inevitably lead to a new wave of rebellion movement in Anatolia. Such a perspective may lead to the collapse of the Turkish state. It would be very naive to think that the Turkish leaders did not understand the possible consequences of their decision. But they had no choice as, loosing the support of the United States; Turkey’s problems would be more serious. The creation of a Kurdish state would become inevitable in that case. Besides, the issue of the Armenian Genocide of 1915 would rise as well. And, as a consequence, no credits from IMF and the WB.
All the above mentioned threats, judging from the Turkish press, were voiced by the authorities of the Department of State during the negotiations with representatives of the official Ankara. As a result, the Turkish authorities preferred not to oppose themselves to Washington. The new credits expected from America and the financial aid attracted the mercantile Turkish leaders. It can be imagined, how they will be disappointed not to receive the promised money.
