All sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict need to prepare their people for peace much better if the seeds of their high-level negotiations are to bear fruit. Nagorno Karabakh: Viewing the Conflict from the Ground, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, explores how the Armenians and Azeris from Nagorno Karabakh and the surrounding districts live and how they view the resolution of the conflict. Despite signs of progress at internationally mediated negotiations (to be discussed in a subsequent report), rising military expenditures and increasing ceasefire violations are ominous signs that time for a peaceful settlement may be running out. The brutal war over Nagorno Karabakh killed some 18,500 people and displaced over a million before settling into a shaky cease-fire in 1994. Eleven years on life in Nagorno Karabakh has regained some sense of normalcy with a developing economy and elected institutions. Yet nothing has been done to restore rights of war victims. The creation of mono-ethnic institutions in Nagorno Karabakh, the destruction of Azeri property, and the privatisation of land and businesses pose significant obstacles to Azeri return and reintegration. Many displaced persons have become highly dependent on the Azerbaijani state, with few opportunities to participate fully in political life and determine their own future. Refusing to allow dialogue and demonising Armenians through the state-sponsored media and schools, Baku has hardened anti-Armenian feeling among average citizens. The Azerbaijanis and Armenians are as separated as they have ever been. “There is need to counter the hate propaganda and unlock the potential for confidence building and dialogue between average Azeris and Armenians”, says Sabine Freizer, Director of Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project. “This has to happen before the memories of cohabitation fade and the divide becomes unbridgeable”. Neither community appears prepared to agree to the kind of settlement being considered by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in the negotiations sponsored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). “The vast majority of those affected by the conflict have been kept in the dark about the details of the negotiations”, says Alain Deletroz, Crisis Group’s Vice President for Europe. “But there is no way for any peace process to succeed unless leaders from all sides start actively selling the idea to their people”.
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