A compromise peace in Nagorno Karabakh looks possible, but significant stumbling blocks remain, says Nagorno Karabakh: A Plan for Peace, the latest report from the International Crisis Group (ICG). The report examines the causes of the conflict, analyses the negotiation process led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and identifies the necessary elements of an achievable peace plan. “The two sides appear close to agreeing on key principles of a peace deal”, says Sabine Freizer, Director of Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project. It should be noted that major elements of the proposed settlement package include: leaving the core issue of Nagorno Karabakh’s status open for later resolution; withdrawal of Armenia-backed Nagorno Karabakh forces from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding the entity; deployment of international peacekeepers; return of displaced persons; and re-opening of trade and communication links. Nagorno Karabakh’s status should ultimately be determined by an internationally sanctioned referendum with the exclusive participation of Karabakh Armenians and Azeris, but only after the above measures have been implemented, the report says. Until then, Nagorno Karabakh would remain part of Azerbaijan, though in practical terms it would be self-governing and enjoy an internationally acknowledged interim status. Eleven years after the 1994 cease-fire, burgeoning defense budgets, increasing cease-fire violations, and continuing demonization by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out, the document says. “So far, despite progress in the negotiations, the resumption of war remains as likely as peace”, says Alain Deletroz, International Crisis Group Vice President for Europe.
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