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21 December 2005 - 12:43 AMT

Yunusov: I Don’t Believe Baku Preparing for War with Armenia

It is hard to compare the efficiency of the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Karabakh armies, head of the Department of Conflictology of the Baku-based Peace and Democracy Institute, military expert Arif Yunusov stated. “I do not think that the efficiency level of the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies differ much. The Azerbaijani army has numeral superiority, however the phenomenon of corruption present in the Azeri Defense Ministry and the information we receive from the armed forces’ contact line prove we only put on a false front. However I do not exclude similar problems within the Armenian army. The army of Karabakh seems a little stronger and this is explained by the fact that war is a real threat for them,” he said adding that the Karabakh army was replenished with recruits and officers, who fought in the war. In his words, neither of the parties to the Karabakh conflict has military superiority. “If war bursts out the year of 1993 will not be repeated. However one cannot hope the Armenian army will be defeated quickly. We can retake a couple of regions. But we should not forget that the resumption of hostilities will bring the mass pressure of the international community upon Azerbaijan. The west is not interested in destabilization in the republic, since it wants to derive profit from the investments made in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. As soon as the profit is turned the west will step aside,” Arif Yunusov said.

When asked whether the increase of the Azerbaijani military budget proves that Baku is preparing for war with Armenia, the Azeri expert said, “I do not believe in it. Most likely Azerbaijan is just threatening with war,” reported Day.az.