The National Interest has published an article analyzing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s political trajectory, arguing that the United States must ensure his political survival if it wants to secure long-term peace in the South Caucasus. Authored by Joseph Epstein, the article highlights Armenia’s growing strategic value and Pashinyan’s reform efforts.
Despite domestic criticism, the piece notes, Pashinyan has worked diligently toward regional peace and integration since taking office following the 2018 Velvet Revolution. He has weathered the aftermath of the 2020 war, opposition from “the Kremlin-backed Armenian Apostolic Church, and alleged coup attempts.”
Epstein argues that with a peace agreement and the 2026 parliamentary elections looming, the stakes are high: “If Pashinyan endures, he could lead Armenia into a long-awaited era of peace. If he falls, the country risks sliding back into Moscow’s orbit, as Georgia did.”
Citing the August 8 peace summit in Washington, Epstein writes that U.S. President Donald Trump praised Pashinyan’s courage. “Reaching peace with Azerbaijan after thirty years of conflict, especially following Baku’s military victory, was politically difficult. If Washington wants to secure that peace, it must ensure Pashinyan’s political survival.”
He suggests that the U.S. can help demonstrate the tangible benefits of Pashinyan’s policies, including through the Crossroads of Peace initiative and investments in artificial intelligence, which aim to strengthen Armenia’s role as a key transit hub.
Epstein emphasizes the importance of resisting pressure from well-funded diaspora groups opposing reconciliation, the groups that, unlike Armenians in Armenia, do not bear the consequences of renewed war. He notes Azerbaijan’s recent approval of wheat transit through its territory as a small but symbolically significant step toward regional integration.
Armenia’s role in the Middle Corridor, a land trade route from East Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran, is strategically vital, especially as Georgia’s pro-Russian tilt under the ruling Georgian Dream party casts doubt on its reliability. Armenia could emerge as a crucial alternative.
Epstein recalls that Pashinyan foresaw this when he launched the Crossroads of Peace project in October 2023, envisioning Armenia as a regional connector through restored rail, road, energy, and pipeline links. A peace agreement could reopen Armenia’s closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, transforming its regional isolation into opportunity.
But Russia, he warns, won’t retreat easily. Ambassador Sergey Kopyrkin has publicly stated that Moscow remains committed to its role in the South Caucasus and considers its military base in Gyumri a key element of Armenia’s security.
Yet, Epstein notes, Armenian trust in Russia has collapsed from 93% in 2019 to just 35% in September 2024. Many Armenians feel betrayed over Russia’s role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Figures like former President Robert Kocharyan fare worse, with a mere 2% approval rating.
“If Moscow succeeds in ousting Pashinyan,” Epstein writes, “it will likely exploit public frustration and nationalism to reignite the conflict with Azerbaijan, leveraging instability to maintain regional dependency, just as it did in Karabakh.”
Helping Pashinyan succeed is not about protecting a single leader, Epstein concludes, but about proving that peace and sovereignty can coexist in the post-Soviet space. “Armenia’s future, and perhaps the stability of the South Caucasus, depends on it.”
Parliamentary elections in Armenia are scheduled for June 2026.
